Below are my League predictions for the upcoming 21/22 Premier League season. With the window still open I expect I could look foolish when it ‘slams shut’ but at the time of writing, the predictions are as follows;
20th - Watford
No brainer for me. Had a quick look at Transfermarkt to check their squad and in my opinion, it is full of players with a Championship-level ceiling. Aside from Ismaila Sarr, who notched 13 goals and 10 assists last season for the Hornets I can’t quite see the spark in their squad that is going to do enough to keep them up. Josh King has been added to the ranks, however after a very underwhelming spell at Everton last season, it seems as though they could be relying on Troy Deeney to lead the line in a number of games again this upcoming season. Defence looks incredibly leaky and I just don’t think they will pull off enough results against those around them which for me, leaves them rooted to the bottom of the table for the majority of the season. Their Gaffer will inevitably be sacked by Christmas before Quique Sanchez Flores then replaces ‘the replacement’ in March for his 3rd spell at the club, being the man to take them down.
19th - Brentford
I have seen a few of these predictions float around already and I have to admit, I was quite surprised at how many of those predicted Brentford to escape the drop. Granted they are still a little bit of an unknown to me, as I have only seen them on a handful of occasions in previous seasons. Their style of play is what intrigues me under Thomas Frank, a version of the high intensity, high tempo 4-3-3 that Jurgen Klopp perfected in Germany and brought to the English game at Liverpool. This style, mixed with little PL experience in the squad is what has them nailed as relegation candidates for me in the similar ilk to Norwich in 19/20, they will play some nice stuff and be easy on the eye but ultimately won’t grind out results unless Ivan Toney scores 30+.
18th - Norwich
I really don’t like that I have the three promoted sides going straight back down, as I do feel like there could be a little shock on the cards this season with a number of now established Premier League sides flirting with relegation, but giving those sides the benefit of the doubt for another year. If Burnley didn’t have Dyche in the dugout, they’d have been down for me so letting them off for another year. In terms of Norwich, they are the ultimate PL Yo-Yo club that oddly seem quite content at being one. They don’t throw cash about in an attempt to establish themselves in the league and some could argue that they’ve seen the likes of Fulham spend over £100m after promotion and still ultimately fail to stay up. They have looked to Daniel Farke’s homeland this Summer and added highly rated USMNT player Josh Sargent & his former Bremen team mate Milot Rashica following their relegation to 2. Bundesliga. The additions of Billy Gilmour & Pierre Lees-Melou bolster their midfield however I feel that like Brentford and Watford below them, they will ultimately fail in getting enough results to stay afloat and will likely *still* be the case when they return to the Premier League for the 23/24 season.
17th - Burnley
As mentioned above, No Dyche No Party in my opinion. Burnley would be back in the Championship and likely to never be seen at the heights of Premier League football again without that man at the helm. A serial over-achiever with the squad at his disposal and always seems to drive Burnley to grind out results to get over the line. That being said, Burnley were very poor last season even with Dyche in charge. No fans in the grounds left the usual cliche of Turf Moor being a “tough place to go” redundant and they ultimately didn’t perform finishing in 17th last season also. They were afforded a PL spot thanks to the poor ability of the three sides finishing below them rather than them being able to drag themselves out of a relegation fight. Finishing shy of the usual ‘40 points = PL safety mark’ and still staying up is testament to this. Much of the same this season is my prediction although I feel like the addition of fans being back in the grounds will allow a little upturn in their Home form this season.
16th - Southampton
Another ‘surprise’ who may not escape the drop. Not really enamoured by the work that Hasenhuttl has done at the Saints. He got a lot of plaudits for their strong start last season however they went from January to March without a PL win which also included a 9-0 drubbing at the hands of Manchester United (their second 9-0 defeat in as many seasons under Hasenhuttl). Adding onto this, they have also sold their star player in Danny Ings to Aston Villa, a player who scored 30% of their PL goals last season. His replacement is intriguing after they sealed a move for Blackburn’s Adam Armstrong for a fee of 15m, however they lost 6m of that to Newcastle who had a 40% sell on clause on him. Armstrong notched 28 goals in 40 games in the Championship last season and does seem to know where the net is, however much like Ivan Toney for Brentford it is hard to expect even half of those numbers in their debut full Premier League season. The other incomings this summer are underwhelming and I feel like the loss of Danny Ings will hurt them but should just have enough to stay afloat.
15th - Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace are an intriguing one for me this season, as they move on from their Hodgson era which consisted of doing enough in the first half of the season in order to canter to safety in the second half. Having Palace in your last 5 fixtures of the season usually brought a guarantee of 3 points and it will be interesting to see how PL Legend (as a player) Patrick Vieira does at the helm. The loss of Ebere Eze is a blow as he was one player that was really heating up as the season progressed last year and the allowance to maybe play a more expansive brand of football, would have seen him come to the fore. They have kept their asset in Zaha however they lost a number of experienced players at the end of their contract over the summer. I really like the business of Joachim Andersen & Marc Guehi coming in to really bolster their CB pairing with Guehi, one to watch this year after an impressive season in the Championship for Swansea last season. Another one to watch is Michael Olise, who was coveted by a number of PL clubs before Palace swooped in and completed a deal. I am not expecting them to set the world alight as I have not been convinced by Vieira’s managerial skills in the past so I am going to keep Palace afloat this year but to potentially kick on in seasons to come.
14th - Newcastle
Some people might feel like they are quite high on this list given they have Steve Bruce at the helm, but I feel that Newcastle’s upturn in form in February onwards after Graeme Jones came onboard in the coaching staff wasn’t coincidental. They have a decent core squad with some attacking prowess in Callum Wilson & Allan Saint-Maximin. At the time of writing, they have yet to bolster the squad which did cause some hesitancy when placing them on this list, but with the expected arrival of Joe Willock from Arsenal and perhaps a few more additions they will consolidate themselves in the league and could even push further up the table. Hopefully Newcastle can win their battle with the Premier League and achieve a takeover and they won’t have to struggle in the future after getting rid of Ashley, but for this season it's falling shy of a run for the top-half.
13th - Brighton
Now for an interesting one. Brighton lost Ben White for £50m and are yet to really re-invest that into the squad. They brought in Enock Mwepu for £20m from Salzburg but have also currently kept hold of Yves Bissouma which gives a good base for their midfield. Brighton are crying out for a proper number 9 and recognised goal scorer and I am personally predicting them to finish as high, purely based on the fact that I think they will bring one in, as 13th is incredibly generous should they fail to do so. Brighton had incredibly high xG last season and their chance creation numbers were through the roof for a side that finished 16th. I am not one to tell the Data & Transfer Analysis Team at Brighton how to do their job by any means, but surely everyone can see what Brighton were missing last season and they are still yet to address this with the season starting in 2 days time. I feel like they could be one of those teams that drop right into the mix for relegation if they somehow don’t re-invest in attacking areas and then also lose Bissouma before the deadline, but I am taking a chance on them for now.
12th - Wolves
After a pretty abject season last year, Wolves parted ways with Nuno Espirito Santo who managed to land himself the Spurs job after they had failed with what seemed like their first 10 options. In true Wolves fashion they replaced Nuno with yet another Portuguese citizen in Bruno Lage, who doesn’t necessarily come with much of a managerial pedigree despite winning the league during his 2 year spell at Benfica. It was the contrasting seasons that caused some concern amongst Wolves fans given he won the title in his first season before equalling their worst ever run of 2 wins in 13 games which included 5 home defeats on the spin for Benfica before being sacked at the end of his 2nd year in charge. Wolves are a bit of an unknown this year and could potentially be a surprise package having kept the majority of their players, despite Ruben Neves being linked with a move away. They swapped out Rui Patricio for Jose Sa in goals and also added Francisco Trincao, a FM wonderkid from Barcelona who will provide them with a spark in attack. The main reason why I don’t have Wolves in any trouble is the return of their main man, Raul Jimenez who is cleared to play again following a horrific head injury last season.
11th - West Ham
Slightly controversial prediction given how they challenged the Top Four last season, falling just 2 points short. I just truly believe that Europa League football will hinder them massively this season, given they don’t have much squad depth and have also yet to do any business of note in the transfer market apart from the arrival of Alphonse Areola. Nikola Milenkovic is rumoured to be joining to help bolster their defensive options but much like Brighton, I feel like this prediction is based on West Ham not yet adding a Centre forward. Michael Antonio is a great player for them but with his injury record, it isn’t ideal by having next to no cover for him in attack. Fully expect West Ham to come alive in the market in the coming weeks, however I don’t think this really changes much regarding my prediction. Last season was a purple patch run in which they overachieved massively and deserve some credit for that. Similar to Wolves when they experienced UEL football with a small squad in previous years, it will impact their performances in the domestic league.
10th - Everton
Always will have a soft spot for Rafa, but can’t quite not see this job as a poisoned chalice at the moment. Carlo Ancelotti is one of the most decorated managers in Europe and struggled to get this Everton side to fire in the league. The expectancy of the fans and board is stuck in the 70s & 80s and a cultural reset is well needed. The arrivals of Andros Townsend & Demarai Gray won’t exactly make other clubs sit up and take note of the ‘major powershift in Merseyside’ that has been claimed to be coming for a number of years now. DCL & Richarlison are a threat and they do have a number of decent players, but I think another year of mid table obscurity beckons for the blues.
9th - Leeds United
Could easily rotate Everton & Leeds between 10th & 9th as I feel like they’re two clubs (potentially along with West Ham) that are that perfect middle of the road team. Good following, slight pretentiousness about them being a ‘big club’ & also with squads too good to drop into the lower depths of the league, but also arguably not good enough to challenge at the top table. Leeds will be delighted to welcome the fans back into Elland Road and they will look to build on a very successful season finishing 9th in their first season in top flight football in quite some time. With Bielsa at the helm and with a squad of players that seem able to fight and compete across every blade of grass, they will be a good watch this season. I do feel like the lack of transfer activity (despite making Harrison’s loan a perm) and the arrival of Junior Firpo from Barcelona isn’t enough to kick on again and really challenge for a European spot. There is also the potential of the dreaded “second season syndrome” however I think they’re too good for this to play a part. Much of the same for Leeds again this year, which will delight their fans but who knows if they can add a few high profile names to the squad before the end of the window.
8th - Aston Villa
This may surprise a few given they have lost their major asset in Jack Grealish to Man City for £100m, however the business they managed to do before selling was super in my opinion. Emiliano Buendia is a quality playmaker who put up good chance creation numbers in his debut season for Norwich and he has gone from providing Teemu Pukki to Danny Ings & Ollie Watkins which should see an upturn in *actual* stats. Danny Ings is another signing that will add more firepower to their attack and lift any dependency on Ollie Watkins, as will Leon Bailey after arriving from Bayer Leverkusen. They have a solid core to their squad and the absence of European football will be a benefit to them this season domestically. I do believe they can kick on and improve on their 11th place finish last season and are one to watch for those European slots. Any additional transfer business in terms of incomings will also cement my faith in this prediction.
7th - Tottenham Hotspur
This prediction is purely based on my expectation that Harry Kane remains a Spurs player. They have already completed decent business in a double swoop from Atalanta by bringing in Gollini & the highly rated Christian Romero, who both stood out in a 5-0 loss at home to Liverpool last season which seems odd to say. Nuno’s appointment is an interesting one and I remain unsure of his talents as a manager. Should they keep Kane, I find it hard to see them finish any lower than 7th although I am not sure if the squad and manager combination is enough for them to challenge the Top Four spots. They are linked with Dusan Vlahovic who I rate very highly after a breakout season in Florence, however Spurs fans will be hoping it is to play alongside Kane rather than replacing him. There is too much uncertainty with Spurs and transfers both in & out for me to place my faith in them finishing any higher and I also believe that travelling to the other sides of Europe every week will hinder them.
6th - Arsenal
The return of St.Totteringham’s Day. I feel pretty confident in my top 5 with Arsenal & Spurs finishing 6th and 7th but could easily be reversed and have St.Totteringham’s Day cancelled. I am giving Arsenal the edge (just) and not by the calibre of their squad either. I feel that Arsenal could benefit from having the sole focus of PL football each weekend, giving Arteta more time on the training pitch to try and further influence his style of play. Arsenal are a strange side, it seems like a mental block as I do believe they have good quality across the pitch and the addition of Ben White will improve them defensively. The young fella Lokonga comes highly rated but unsure how much of a part he will play in their starting XI. Not convinced on Aubameyang or Lacazette leading the line, although I am excited to see Bukayo Saka & Emile Smith-Rowe kick on this season in which I feel both could have big seasons for the Gunners. Could end up flipping a coin between Spurs & Arsenal to who takes 6th spot and both could also usurp Leicester into 5th depending Leicester ability to keep everyone fit this season, but don’t think either have enough to break into the UCL spots.
5th - Leicester City
Leicester will be buoyed by their back to back successes at Wembley which should be enough to ease the pain of bottling Top 4 last year. They haven’t got off to a great start on the squad front given the talented Wesley Fofana looks set to miss the rest of 2021, with his return also not expected to be in the early months of 2022. They have brought in two exciting additions in the Zambian, Patson Daka who filled the Erling Haaland void in Salzburg and one who was always expected to be next in the conveyor belt of talent coming out of the Austrian club. The other is French champions Lille’s star midfielder last season, Boubakary Soumare who will slot nicely in their combative midfield which already boasts the names of Wilfred Ndidi & Youri Tielemans. Their squad has a whole (when all fit) look set to challenge those UCL spots again this season however uncertainty over the future of James Maddison, whilst looking light in the central defence area accompany what now seems like an annual bottling of Top 4 are the reasons behind Leicester missing out again.
I would like to make note that before I give my predictions on the Top 4 for the upcoming season, cases could be made for any of the 4 to win the Title in my honest opinion. It is much closer, certainly between 2nd-4th than many people think and these 4 spots are based on what current squads look like including those finalising deals.
4th - Manchester United
This is by no means a slant on United as they more than warranted being runners up to City last season despite having a slightly more settled season than those around them. Losing to Villarreal in the Europa League final brought a dampener for them at the end of the season, but there is no denying to the quality that they have added to the squad in Jadon Sancho & Raphael Varane. Varane is a bigger signing than Sancho in my opinion as it really strengthens an area of need in the centre of defence with Maguire now seemingly playing freely without the worry of the price tag on his mind they will be more solid at the back this year. I am still not overly struck on Wan-Bissaka who gets better defensive plaudits due to his tackling despite being well below par positionally & when in possession. Defence is not where the weak point lies for me, despite how I rate AWB. I have them finishing 4th purely based on the fact that it looks likely that Fred & McTominay will play a key part in their squad. If United go and add a quality DM or deep lying playmaker more in the ilk of Saul Niguez than the Ruben Neves’ of this world then I really think they challenge right to the end for the title and whilst I dont think Ole is the man to bring the good times back for the Red half of Manchester, he would certainly have the squad in place to give it a fair crack. I know some will argue Donny Van De Beek and Nemanja Matic supposedly looked very good in a friendly and will give Ole another option, I would have to argue that Liverpool have the quadruple wrapped up should pre-season performances bear any weight given how Takumi Minamino & Naby Keita have performed. (please note this is a joke for ‘receipts’ purposes.) Summary - United in 4th unless they add 1 or 2 more.
3rd - Liverpool
Another prediction based on what the club have at their disposal now rather than how they could look by the end of the window. Whilst I think the gap between 1st and 4th will be much, much closer than in recent seasons, I would fully expect Liverpool to be going for the title right to the end of the season should they add another attacking option and another in the midfield area. Liverpool’s business this season has remained solely with the addition of France’s U21 captain Ibrahima Konate, it is the return of players who had their seasons cut prematurely last year in Joe Gomez, Virgil Van Dijk & Joel Matip that will continue to add strength to a team that finished 3rd whilst playing two of their dinner ladies at Centre-Half for the majority of the last season. Much like Manchester United, it will be any additions that come in between now and the end of the window that would sway me to have them in the top two, as I just feel like the depth of Man City and Chelsea is too strong. I would caveat that I do believe Manchester United & Liverpool starting XI’s either match or even exceed those of the two teams I have placed above them in this prediction. As a Liverpool fan, my head is ruling my heart here placing them in 3rd place but I would caution that the return of fans will be a major boost on this side and they will be hungry to right the wrongs of last season after feeling aggrieved the team that won the league didn’t get a fair crack at defending it. 3rd place seems slightly higher than most Media predictions, which is exactly what will suit Jurgen Klopp & Liverpool.
2nd - Chelsea
When giving this a thought, I found it very difficult to not include Chelsea in 2nd place. The addition of Romelu Lukaku (pending completion) is a major reason behind this. I thought Chelsea were beginning to become ever so slightly overrated in the media at the beginning of Thomas Tuchel’s spell towards the end of last season, but they managed to rise to the occasion by beating Man City in the European Cup Final despite losing the FA Cup final to Leicester at Wembley in the weeks before. Chelsea just scraped into 4th spot after Leicester let them off the hook in gameweek 38 last season and perhaps this prediction does come with some caution. Outside of the now slightly aging Kante, I am not enamored with their central midfield options in comparison to other top clubs. I would also make a case that their defence isn’t as strong as the other top 4 clubs, but it is also worth noting they have a decent clean sheet record under Tuchel’s stewardship. If Chelsea can bring in a CB and another decent midfield option they can really give City a run for their money, but it remains to be seen if Chelsea can build on their success of a European title last season. Too much money has been spent in recent seasons now for them not to be challenging for the title and whilst I have them in 2nd, Liverpool and Manchester United’s transfer could see them drop in my predictions should Chelsea not invest further in key areas.
1st - Manchester City
Nearing the £1,000,000,000 mark spent at City under Pep and still no European title to show for it. This isn’t the competition they will be all guns for at the beginning of the season but they will be the ones to beat for sure. Addition of Jack Grealish adds even more attacking options that they didn’t need but with the shiny new toy becoming the poster boy for England football despite not getting a great number of minutes at the Euros, it's a deal that had City all over it. Worth noting here that if City get Kane, the title is over as soon as he signs on the dotted line. Whilst I don't personally think Kane leaves Spurs this summer, I think it makes the gap between the top 4 clubs much smaller should he stay put. City had a free run at the title last year with no one really staying in touch to put any form of pressure on. It will be different this year, with the surrounding clubs all strengthening this summer which in turn should make for a pulsating title race. I don’t think we will see another canter to the title for any team this year but I will be surprised if there aren't sky blue ribbons on the PL trophy come May.
POTY - Bruno Fernandes
YPOTY - Bukayo Saka
Golden Boot - Romelu Lukaku
Thanks to those that have managed to make it this far, appreciate you taking the time to read it. Apologies if it causes any offence in where your club is placed & please don’t use this as a virtual stick to beat me with come May….
Jamie
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